“There’s nowt as queer as folk” – a saying intended to refer to Yorkshiremen (and women) but could be widened to include my neighbours in France. Two days away from the presidential election, as the whole country gears up to decide which of the only two variants of France on offer they are going to vote for, an opinion poll asked them who is the person they would most like to see playing an important role in French political life. One could assume the person they will vote for. Not at all. The answer, resoundingly, is François Bayrou – the man they ejected from the presidential race ten days ago. His popularity has grown by ten points since the last similar poll. Which is the political party you consider the best? The UDF – Bayrou’s party. The man is 9 points ahead of Sarkozy and 13 points ahead of Royal; his party is 7 points ahead of Sarkozy’s and 10 ahead of the Socialists. Is this guilt for having rejected him at the ballot box? Regret? Wanting to make him feel better? Because it’s easier to vote for someone who’s not actually standing? Or a realisation that he is actually the key?

Yesterday Bayrou cannily refused to say who he will vote for, and refused to “tell” his electorate who they should vote for. By keeping his independence he is informing whoever wins the presidential race on Sunday that they are likely to lose power in next month’s parliamentary elections (yes, the story is far from over: “French elections 2” is already being scripted – shooting begins Monday morning). Mathematically, only the party allied to Bayrou can win a parliamentary majority, and that party will create the government (and prime minister). Sarkozy may well find that if he wins on Sunday his victory is pyrrhic, lasting little more than a month.

Meanwhile, as if it were Zidane’s head-butt, the press, media and blogosphere goes over and over Royal’s outburst of anger in Wednesday’s televised debate. In two hours forty minutes of confrontation, it was the only moment of passion. Whether it was real or fake no one can decide, but she expressed something like anger at the present government’s attitude towards handicapped people. For the said press, media and blogosphere, that was the high point of the debate. On the same day, far away in Bangkok, the international panel of experts discussing global warming made a joint declaration that the next couple of years are crucial to the future of the planet. Just to make the comparison clearer, let’s say during the next five years – the length of time the next president of France will be in office – our life-styles have got to begin to change radically if we want all our children – not only the handicapped – to survive. On the one hand the possibly irreversible destruction of life on our planet and on the other a spat about which political party gives most money (not the same as concern or care) to a very small, though very serious section of our society. Both are important, but why is only one present at this final moment of the presidential election campaign? In January everyone was talking environment. Way back then the same old press, media and blogosphere said it was the issue which would dominate and be déterminante in the whole campaign. How wrong they were.

The reason it has disappeared from the radar screens is that neither Sarkozy nor Royal dares tackle it – global warming is a vote-killer. Aeroplane commuting is a major reason the far-flung regions of France, all the Mediterranean coast-line for example, are doing well: people can live there and fly in to Paris, or London for the week. Everyone needs a car – if only to swell the traffic jams during the spring and summer holidays. If we didn’t use cars, where would the government get its astronomic and vital income from fuel-tax from? If the government didn’t have that income, centres caring for handicapped children would certainly receive even less, as would the unemployed, the sick and the elderly. So all the pious promises would be shown up for what they are. Much easier to argue about whether people can work half an hour more or less each week – as fascinating as how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.

Is that why neither Royal nor Sarkozy is the most important political person at the moment?

This entry was posted on Friday, May 4th, 2007 at 7:28 am and is filed under Political. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.