http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/blog/franceprofonde/take-the-current-when-it-serves/ Tim King on French politics Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:51:34 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.5 http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/blog/franceprofonde/take-the-current-when-it-serves/#comment-72 Tue, 06 Feb 2007 14:50:05 +0000 http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/blog/franceprofonde/take-the-current-when-it-serves/#comment-72 Bayrou's program is serious, although a bit dull. His great side is Europe, a true desire to reform institutions and a liberal approach in economics. But he has no groundbreaking innovation to propose. Should he? Not necessarily. The people who will vote for him are those who are fed up of the pseudo debates with Segolène (who look more, from the reports given of them, like sessions of group dynamics than to real discussions, and which seem to have more a cathartic effect than anything else) and of the Sarko machine which is basically inspired by Chirac's style of campaign in the old days. This is not enough to raise above the present score attributed to Segolène and to run for the second round. Unless a large fraction of the socialist electorate votes for Bayrou. Look at the scores that Fabius and Strauss-Kahn got among the socialists militants during the primaries: about 38%. If these people do not vot for Sego and do not respect the discipline of the party, Bayrou can get 2 or 3 more points. But for him to have a chance Sego must fall again. But she might. Some people had never any confidence in her, and reluctantly followed her because thay thought she would win. C'est la grande illusion. Bayrou’s program is serious, although a bit dull. His great side is Europe, a true desire to reform institutions and a liberal approach in economics. But he has no groundbreaking innovation to propose. Should he? Not necessarily. The people who will vote for him are those who are fed up of the pseudo debates with Segolène (who look more, from the reports given of them, like sessions of group dynamics than to real discussions, and which seem to have more a cathartic effect than anything else) and of the Sarko machine which is basically inspired by Chirac’s style of campaign in the old days. This is not enough to raise above the present score attributed to Segolène and to run for the second round. Unless a large fraction of the socialist electorate votes for Bayrou. Look at the scores that Fabius and Strauss-Kahn got among the socialists militants during the primaries: about 38%. If these people do not vot for Sego and do not respect the discipline of the party, Bayrou can get 2 or 3 more points. But for him to have a chance Sego must fall again. But she might. Some people had never any confidence in her, and reluctantly followed her because thay thought she would win. C’est la grande illusion.

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