Take the current when it serves
Where is it all going? Those who like to see patterns in history point excitedly to the 1995 campaign: at this stage in that election, with 4 or 5 weeks full campaigning behind them and 11 left to go, there were two candidates way out front and a third man languishing with an apparently hopeless 11-12%. Just like now! Ségolène and Sarko dominate the field and Bayrou, trails with a worthy but impossible 11%. Now look, say the history-watchers: in 1995 the two unassailable leaders were Jospin and Balladur, the third man was poor unloved Jacques Chirac. But he went on to win!
François Bayrou may pull off the same feat, but if he does it won’t be because of history. History does not repeat itself, journalists do.
The cause of this speculation is that indeed M. Bayrou is surging forward, gaining 4 points in a fortnight. Last week when he turned up to address 300 people in Aix he found 1,000 crammed into adjoining rooms. This is taken as the long-awaited sign, now is the time, cry the pundits, that irreversible things happen: we are on the cusp….. well, maybe.
As I read it, France has a large, perhaps huge, as yet uncounted number of people who are dissatisfied and disillusioned with not just the main candidates, but the whole existing political set-up, elitist, Paris-based. They are an electorate in search of a candidate, just as two years ago there was a huge number of people searching for someone who could express what they felt about the European Constitution. Then, they found their voice, it came from the Internet, Etienne Chouard posting his views, taken up literally by millions. Again, history does not repeat itself. I don’t think that will happen this time, or not in the same way, but there is that similar groundswell of intelligent, educated but dissatisfied people searching, waiting. The far left, whose anti-Europe stand in the referendum served them well, have not this time captured the imagination. I don’t honestly think enough people really believe in them. Bové might, Le Pen might – his campaign is aimed at working on that disappointment. This time he is more moderate, and the persistence of his message, unchanged for 30 years, is seen by some as a sign of reliability and sincerity in the face of the constantly pirouetting Chirac and his pupil Sarkozy.
The key question now is, can Bayrou get the better of Bové and Le Pen? In a sense Sarko and Ségo are irrelevant: with 11 weeks still to run, already they cease to surprise. Last night I switched off the “Sarko meets the people” TV discussion after 15 minutes, it was so utterly predictable. No, the interest is which of the poor relations, Bové, Le Pen or Bayrou, can seize the moment and do what Chirac did in ‘95 and Le Pen did in 2002: come up from behind and get through to the 2nd round.
Probably only Bayrou, because he’s the only one who would have a chance of winning the 2nd round. Protest votes make you feel good for a day, but in the end this whole exercise is about choosing a president for five years. Bayrou’s approach to campaigning is different: while Sarkozy organises giant media-orientated circuses from which most people are excluded, and Royal organises vociferous participative forums in vast halls, Bayrou simply walks the streets, often more or less alone. He talks to people. And he sticks to the provinces.
He says there is a genuine desire for what he proposes: a government of national union, formed with some from the left and some from the right (which could be seen as dangerously perpetuating the worst of the old system. But he has little choice, not having enough parliamentarians in his own party – a major credibility problem as well for Le Pen and Bové). He will write a 6th constitution, giving parliament more power.
But going back to those who predict the future by examining history: in the 2002 campaign at this stage there were two candidates in the same position as Le Pen and Bayrou now – with around 13% each. In 2002 the two candidates were Le Pen and Jean-Pierre Chevenement. In the end Le Pen went forward to the second round and Chevenement collapsed to 5%. The future is not yet written.
February 6th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Bayrou’s program is serious, although a bit dull. His great side is Europe, a true desire to reform institutions and a liberal approach in economics. But he has no groundbreaking innovation to propose. Should he? Not necessarily. The people who will vote for him are those who are fed up of the pseudo debates with Segolène (who look more, from the reports given of them, like sessions of group dynamics than to real discussions, and which seem to have more a cathartic effect than anything else) and of the Sarko machine which is basically inspired by Chirac’s style of campaign in the old days. This is not enough to raise above the present score attributed to Segolène and to run for the second round. Unless a large fraction of the socialist electorate votes for Bayrou. Look at the scores that Fabius and Strauss-Kahn got among the socialists militants during the primaries: about 38%. If these people do not vot for Sego and do not respect the discipline of the party, Bayrou can get 2 or 3 more points. But for him to have a chance Sego must fall again. But she might. Some people had never any confidence in her, and reluctantly followed her because thay thought she would win. C’est la grande illusion.