Most French want neither Bové nor Le Pen to stand
A CSA opinion poll published this morning says that the majority of French people asked do not want either José Bové or Jean-Marie Le Pen to get the 500 signatures necessary to become official candidates (for an explanation of this somewhat obscure system, take a look at the December 2006 France Profonde and/or Tomás Ruta’s comment and my reply to Le Pen Rising: Tomás Ruta has a very good and much praised blog on Europe). However, in the same poll a majority does want the Greens Dominique Voynet and Corinne Lepage, as well as the Trotskyist Olivier Besancenot to get their quota of signatures.
This is hard to interpret: clearly the extreme left is OK (Besancenot) as are the Greens - yet Bové, who is both extreme left and green, is a far more popular and emblematic figure. So is it that the shadow of the 2002 elections still hangs over France? Is the electorate terrified that as in 2002 too many candidates will dilute the first-round vote? But in that case why allow the meat and two veg, sorry the Trotskyist and 2 Greens? If people wanted fewer candidates, Bové is the obvious amalgam of those three: better, surely, to get rid of them and keep him. Perhaps the feeling is that Bové, like the ultra-popular Green TV presenter Nicolas Hulot, should not sully himself with politics?
The idea that the French are still in shock after the 2002 election is supported by the finding that 55% of those asked don’t want Le Pen to get his signatures. That seems to me unfair. Like it or not there are a good many French people who vote Le Pen: this year, under the influence of his daughter Marine, his policies are aimed at reaching a broader public, fewer of them are the extreme ones of yesteryear and more are thought provoking. And surely it’s better anyway to let those who vote Le Pen fully express themselves that way, rather than pretending they don’t exist and creating a deep resentment which will only be expressed in another.
February 8th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Le Pen has made a point, in the past, of telling reporters he is being held back from reaching the 500 mark because of the official mainstream left-right conspiracy against him; then, at the last moment, he miraculously breaks free and, like Superman, punches his way trhough the ceiling.
February 8th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Interesting survey figures. I’m not so sure though about the interpretation provided by Tim.
Perhaps an answer to the question of why would the public allow “the meat and 2 veg” can be found in the fact that they represent political parties whilst neither Bové nor Hulot did. The right for established parties to present candidates is well asserted and most French people agree to that.
This leaves unexplained why they would not offer Le Pen the same rights. I am of the impression that perhaps neither Besancenot, nor Lepage or Voynet actually have any chance of making it to the second round, whereas Le Pen does. The very strong (and real?) fear that this might actually happen drives people to hope he doesn’t get the 500 endorsements to avoid a repeat of 2002.
Regards.