Massively behind him
Partly as a counter-response to Ange Scalpel’s comment on the previous blog about President Sarkozy’s mediocre reforms, it’s worth having a look at the recent IFOP poll published a week ago. A week is a long time in politics, and opinion polls are, by definition, subjective, but they do show general trends of thought. The aim of this particular poll was to find out what the French public thinks of Sarkozy’s first 100 days.
In general it showed that, in mid-August, the French were strongly in favour of what Sarkozy has done. In order of popularity:
1) 87% were in favour of having a tax credit for part of their mortgage interest payments. However, popularity for that reform may diminish now the Constitutional Court has ruled the law cannot be retroactive, as Sarkozy had wished and promised, but can only apply to mortgages taken out after the 1st September 2007. The Prime Minister has said they will draft a new law correcting that.
2) 84% are in favour of the law on minimum sentences for recidivists which, in some circumstances, also allows 16 year olds to be sentenced as if they were adults.
3) 80% are in favour of the President’s action over the Bulgarian nurses in Libya
4) 72% are in favour of the law making a minimum service in public transport an obligation during strikes
5) 66% are in favour of making overtime payments tax and charge-free.
6) 64% are in favour of lowering the upper tax limit from 60% of income to 50%
7) 61% are in favour of Sarkozy’s mini-treaty on Europe
8) 58% are in favour of the university reforms
The only unpopular new measure is the announcement that more than 22,000 civil servants (out of I think around 80,000) will not be replaced when they retire this year. 61% of those asked were not satisfied by it.
Thus it seems clear that, in mid-August, Sarkozy is sweeping his compatriots along with him on the road to reform. 64% also say they approve the way he is handling the presidency – making it both less formal and more active in daily life, with a daily running commentary from the president himself. There is, as I have said elsewhere, a euphoria following in Sarkozy’s wake which is encouraging and pleasant to witness: in their holiday mood the French seem less reluctant than some commentators supposed a year ago to shake off the inertia affecting the country for the past few years. That is all to the good and very much to Sarkozy’s credit.
It is also interesting (although of course not at all surprising) that in this poll women are leading opinion: in every case more women are in favour of the reforms than men (and many more women are against the non-replacement of fonctionnaires). The age-groups show a pattern as well: two age groups dominate Sarkozy’s popularity – the 24-to-35 years and the over 65’s. Those most often only luke-warm about the reforms are the 35-to-49 year olds. I was surprised that the 24-to-35 year olds are most in favour of minimum (implying tougher) sentences for recidivists.
As far as Sarkozy’s informal and hyper-communicative style is concerned, women again are largely in favour (68% of women against 60% of men), and it is the over-65’s who, by a long way, are most in favour of this relaxation of style.
One question posed by the poll which has received less publicity is whether the Franco-American relationship should be closer, stay as it is or be more distant. The largest number, but not a majority, 40%, believe it should stay as it is, but tantalisingly the question does not specify whether that means as it has been under Chirac or since Sarkozy’s election. Sarkozy’s decision to send Bernard Kouchner to Irak is interesting in that light. Kouchner says he has gone for personal reasons, but that his visit comes so soon after the 11/08 barbecue (08/11 for American readers) has caused eyebrows to raise.
Another caveat about the poll is that it asks opinions about laws which are vague: of course many people back a minimum service in public transport as long as “minimum service” is not defined. Purists or pedants might say minimum means one train a day. “Minimum” should be replaced by “adequate” or “necessary”, measured perhaps as full service for four hours a day, two in the morning, two in the evening. But that law would never have been passed so quickly, and speed is what M. Sarkozy is after. In the meantime, in the wonderful phrasing of Le Monde: “The Constitutional Court has therefore sent to collective negotiation the care of defining, in the framework fixed by the law, the rules of organisation of the procedure.” Long live parliamentary democracy!
My own opinion on Sarkozy’s 100 days will have to wait for the next issue of Prospect magazine, which is why I have confined myself to writing about his holidays.