For those interested in this blog, I shall continue writing and posting for the foreseeable future. Probably not every day, perhaps two or three times a week. I shall comment on French politics, which in the autumn promises to be lively, as Sarkozy’s promised policies jerk into action. But I shall also expand into other aspects of life in France, inviting comments as always from readers so that the blog becomes more of a dialogue, less of a sermon – as well as writing about books and films, old as well as new if they are relevant to whatever is happening, and the French blogosphere, which I still consider to be one of the most interesting alternative ways of looking at France. Under Sarkozy’s presidency, much of the media is likely to become even more insipid, since his chums own chunks of the press and television, so the best place for a different take on events remains the intelligent blogosphere.

The presidential election closed less than a week ago and already a different campaign for a different election is well under way, parliamentary this time: the faces change but the polices, promises and demagoguery remain the same. One should feel some sympathy for these poor French citizens who, every day since Christmas, have been bombarded with a continuous wash of political comment on the radio, TV and press – not to mention the dozens of books published. By the time this election is finished (June 17th), it will have been six months – half a year dominated by domestic election campaigns, half a whole year thinking almost exclusively about themselves, their problems, how to solve them. Everyone says that the campaign has shown the French are passionate about politics: a cynic might say they just love talking about their problems, that the campaign has been a six-month collective session with an unseen shrink.

As the new campaign begins, the result looks like a foregone conclusion. At this stage it seems inevitable that for the next five years the Assemblée Nationale will be dominated by Sarkozy’s party, with a divided Socialist opposition struggling to show any teeth and the smaller parties not even in sight, since proportional representation cannot come in before 2012 – if Sarkozy shows any desire for it, which so far he has not.
 
The French Socialist Party is going through the same agonies the British Conservative party experienced between 1997 and 2005: like the British Conservatives, it’s far more than simply picking themselves up, shaking themselves down and starting all over again, they will have to remake themselves totally, finding policies that suit a new electorate and a leader who can inspire them with confidence. But whereas the British Conservatives always wanted to get elected, I wonder whether the French Socialist Party actually prefers following polices that it knows will never attract a majority of today’s French people. Or whether a party driven by an ideology such as socialism in its purer, 19th century form, cannot possibly unite, since ideologies arouse such great passions and people disagree hotly over minutiae. If politics is the art of the do-able (and not just, as Bismark thought, the possible), perhaps 21st century Socialism is not really politics – more a religion, a belief, a state of mind. Anyway, apparently Royal will not do, even though in the second round she polled more votes than Mitterrand ever did.

As for François Bayrou, it looks as though his dream of creating a meaningful party which unites the best of the left with the best of the right is doomed. The majority of his MP’s have abandoned principles – if they ever had them – in favour of looking after No. 1. Sarkozy promised that if they swear allegiance to him, he would not put one of his own candidates to run against them in their constituency. They care more about their careers than anything vaguely resembling integrity, their leader or indeed the 7 million who voted for him in the first round. The left, which a fortnight ago was wooing Bayrou, talking in public about moving closer to the centre, has abandoned all that in the wake of their defeat. So those who voted Bayrou less than three short weeks ago in the first round of the presidential election, will have almost no representation in parliament. His new party, the Mouvement pour Democracy, or MoDem as it’s called, will not manage more than half a dozen seats and leave Bayrou powerless, despite his considerable following.

This entry was posted on Sunday, May 13th, 2007 at 10:15 am and is filed under Political. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.