Is Sarkozy in trouble?
Are Le Pen and Sarkozy discussing a possible alliance? In an interview today with Le Figaro, Le Pen admits that he has been to see Sarkozy twice, “to discuss technical election problems”, adding that he has no personal bone to pick with Sarko as he had with Chirac. “If Sarkozy says he wants to come closer to us, why not?” Le Pen said. ”It would depend on whether it was in the national and my party’s interest. In any case, we have no preconceived feelings, either against him or anyone else.”
It is intriguing if Sarkozy is holding out some sort of olive branch to Le Pen: “Chirac didn’t want to talk to us. If Sarkozy wants to talk to all the political parties including the Front National, it’s a new era, certainly,” adds Le Pen. If Sarkozy finds himself against Bayrou in the second round, the polls show Sarkozy beaten each time. To win he would need Le Pen’s 15 - 20%. Of course he need not ask for it, Le Pen could appear to make the offer spontaneously, but even so it would be a very bold, desperate move for Sarkozy to accept, since the outcry - and despair, including internationally - would be enormous, tainting Sarkozy’s presidency from the start. It is almost inconceivable he would do it, since he would probably lose more on the moderate right than he would gain from the extreme. But then again, in today’s Libération Sarkozy seems to be preparing the ground, saying that all the main candidates have moved further right - with the sole exception of Le Pen, implying that Le Pen is now more moderate, and adding “Just because Le Pen touches something does not mean it has to be forbidden.”
April 16th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Sarkozy’s comment that every candidate had moved right except Le Pen was meant as a joke … it’s also true. Your comment that a Sarkozy/Le Pen alliance is “almost inconceivable” isn’t quite right; it is iboth nconceivable and misunderstands Sarkozy’s bid for the FN vote. He has said this explicitly: that he is courting a vote (for order, for control of immigration, and for and to politics-as-usual) and not a party. In his view, all the main parties, including the workers’ parties, abandoned this vote to Le Pen without a fight. In the second round, he will talk less about order, morality and the nation and will appeal to the right wing of Bayrou’s base. This is just scaremongering.
April 17th, 2007 at 6:56 am
Umm. Yes, Sarkozy’s comment about Le Pen moving right can be seen as a joke - but the comment he made straight afterwards I think shows the non-joking thought behind it.
I am not quite sure what is meant to be scaremongering - if my blog, then I hope not. After all neither I nor most of the blog’s readers have the vote, my intention is to observe and express my fascination. If Sarkozy is holding out an olive branch to Le Pen it is intriguing, but also almost inconceivable - I make the difference between seeking Le Pen’s voters by saying what they want to hear and actively holding out an olive branch to the man Le Pen before the first round. And as I have said elsewhere, I don’t believe there is anything to be scared of in Le Pen: short of a quite exceptional event between now and Sunday (always possible, as in Madrid in 2004) he is not going to be president. However I would understand anyone wanting to vote Le Pen because at least they know who they are voting for: he has not changed (well, he has moderated) his stand over the years. What intrigues - and exasperates - me as a non-voting observer is how other politicians chop and change their policies cynically to attract a few more votes. Also as an individual and regardless of his ideas, Le Pen is a charming interviewee, his sense of humour probably very close to the British.
April 17th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
Sarkozy is very different from Chirac. In 2002, when France has to choose between Chirac and Le Pen, Chirac has received a big support from leftist people and won with 87%. Chirac has always been considered as a democratic leader.
Nowadays, for lots of people on the left wing, there is no difference between Sarkozy and Le Pen. On the genetics, on the Holocaust (Sarkozy thinks that France haven’t to feel ashamed), on the immigration, … Sarkozy seems to be even worst than Le Pen.
No doubt that Sarkozy would win if there were a second turn Sarkozy/Le Pen, but he will certainly win by *only* 60%, not 87% like Chirac.
April 21st, 2007 at 10:10 pm
I know some people that consider Le Pen as less dangerous than Sarkozy. People who are well informed here in France know that Sarkozy is a real fascist, in the new neo-cons fashion.
This kind of fascism is not clearly identified by people because its history is just happening know.
This is the main reason why it will be difficult to avoid it.