Are we going to see a Bayrou/Royal contest in the second round of this presidential election? Is that going to be this year’s surprise? After all, in the past two votes, in 2002 and 2005, the French have surprised and shocked the world, surely they are not going to let us down for the hat-trick? And what a shock that would be, knocking Sarkozy, who has led oh-so comfortably from the beginning, into third place at the final moment.

It seems hardly likely, but Sarkozy is in trouble. As we reach the end of three months’ campaign (or in his case 25 years), the electorate – as well as those organs of the media not owned by Sarko’s buddies - is less than convinced by him. Quite simply, more and more people are afraid of him. This week’s “Marianne” magazine, for example, has a cover story “Sarkozy: what the big media don’t dare or don’t want to say.” Marianne has talked to those who know him and come to the conclusion “In some ways the man is mad. And the nature of his madness is the same which in the past fuelled plenty of apprentice dictators.” Well, pace my correspondent of yesterday, that is true scaremongering, although as “Libération” says this morning, none of it is new. But within 48 hours all 300,000 copies of the magazine “Marianne” had gone from the newsagents – probably bought by Sarko’s boys.

Part of what people are afraid of in Sarkozy are things beyond his control, they way he looks, for example (although Ségolène apparently had a jaw-job last year to improve the way she looks on camera). As exhaustion and tension become more evident on his face, his pointy ears and eye-brows do make him look more and more like the little devil which has been his caricature in “Le Canard Enchainé” for years. Indeed recently “Le Monde” has taken to publishing photos of him that support that diabolic, or perhaps simply Machiavellian impression. Is that why, suddenly in these final days, he is trying to convince us of his devout Christianity? Of course he may be, but why bring it out now in a rather saccharine way? The secular French do not like their politicians to mix religion into their professional life, the way Tony Blair does.

Another thing he can’t do much about is his nervous, staccato manner, his facial tics and grimaces. A president has to have enormous energy, yes, but at the same time a certain serenity to cope with crises. Stories of Sarkozy’s short fuse, angrily throwing things at his advisors, abound, as do his over-hasty use of words like “scum”. Chirac did himself and France great harm by his ill-considered use of words, as when he tried to teach eastern European countries how to behave, or told Tony Blair that he was badly brought-up. Now, as the vote approaches, Sarkozy is desperately trying to show that underneath it all he is Mr. Nice Guy – but it looks as though it’s too late. Ironically it is Sarkozy who gets more dictator-like moustaches on posters than Le Pen.

People who have worked with him have told me that he is his own worst enemy. Amongst other things, Sarkozy’s battles with Chirac have left their scars – on the public’s memory. We all know he’s betrayed his mentors (not that they were worth much either), that Chirac hates him. Now he himself is close to the top, he’s equally ruthless with those who, for years, have helped and supported him, like Brice Hortefeu, cast into Outer Darkness for speaking out of turn. The public don’t care about Hortefeu, but they see the brittle tension, the undisguised stress, and they worry if that’s what Sarkozy’s like now, what will he be like in a few years’ time? Will he really be able to cope calmly with the delicate problems we know Brussels is going to throw at him? Then they look at Bayrou who remains relaxed, smiling, helpful despite the reverses of the campaign.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 18th, 2007 at 9:45 am and is filed under Political, Nicolas Sarkozy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.