Is the gloss wearing off already? Almost exactly two months after his election, France according to N. Sarkozy is already looking somewhat less rosy than he promised. Of course much of the blame for some of the problems, such as the ever-deepening social security debt, will be laid at the feet of his predecessor, although the depressing figures released yesterday relate to the whole of this year, not last. 12 billion euro is the projected deficit by the end of 2007, whereas only a few months ago the then minister of health promised that by Christmas everything would be under control, the sums balanced. That same ex-minister of health who failed to see the inevitable is today’s minister of work. Meanwhile the strategies for savings put forward by the present ministers of health and economy seem to convince no one: too late, too small and too silly.

In another sector, justice, the first bill of the Sarkozy era is coming before the senate today, having had a rocky ride, particularly from those who will have to work with it. It concerns minimum and fixed sentencing for recidivists, at the same time removing legal protection for recidivist minors: once the law is passed they will be sentenced as if adults. A tougher law on those who cannot keep to the straight and narrow is something Sarkozy promised all through the election campaign, and is the real reason he appointed Rachida Dati to be minister of justice: since most recidivists are said to come from the troubled ghettos, far more acceptable for someone of immigrant descent, particularly a compassionate young woman, to pass that sort of repressive law than a white male. But all Mme Dati’s former colleagues working in the law courts and with young offenders object to her bill, mainly because they believe repression (i.e. prison sentences) is not the answer. People are also wondering why there have to be so many penal reforms: this is the 11th since 2002, the last one coming into force only in March of this year.

On the subject of prisons there is also the vexed and highly charged question of amnesties. It is a French tradition that on the 14th July, to commemorate the destruction of that infamous prison the Bastille, the president lets loose upon society a large number of old lags from today’s prisons. These multiple amnesties have the practical effect of making space in the already over-crowded French prisons, so that more prisoners can be taken in after the summer spate of house-breaking (everyone gains from these long summer holidays). However, Sarkozy said last year that he was against such amnesties. But if he doesn’t amnesty then he is faced with three new problems: one is that the old lags, disappointed and with nothing to lose, will revolt during the summer (especially if it turns hot). Two is that unless he empties cells now, how can the prisons cope with September’s influx? Three is on top of that his new law being debated today will inevitably increase the number of prison sentences, thus making overcrowding even worse. Sarkozy is damned either way, and with nine days to go before he has to make his announcement, nobody knows which way he prefers to go.

In a very different league, but another example of the tarnish fast appearing on the Sarkozy regime, there is the rather silly problem of his wife’s credit card. Up until now, president’s wives have not had a state-funded credit card: their frocks were paid for by the state, certainly, but supervised and actually paid for by a department within the presidential palace. Not so for Cecilia, who wanted and got her own flexible friend (without telling anyone of course). Once it was leaked, this raised the problem of her legal status: having no mandate or special function, she has no legal right to spend public money, indeed her doing so is a misdemeanour. The reference is doubtless a veiled criticism of the fact that Cecilia failed to turn up to the official banquet and outings at the recent G8 summit – in other words “if you want us to put rags on your back, you’ve got to do the job.” Yesterday, to much jocularity in the press, she handed the card in. Apparently she had only used it twice, both times for lunches, one cost 129€ and the other 272€. When asked how much cash she had withdrawn, the press office “could not get an answer.” Silly indeed, so trivial it’s worthy only of the wretched British tabloid press, which, the French love to say, has no equivalent in France – although they relish this story. Their claws are out. They do not like Cecilia, who, I have predicted before, will be Sarkozy’s Achilles’ heel.

Other warts appearing on the fair face of Sarko’s France include: the well-sourced rumour that 17,000 jobs in education face the guillotine next year – far worse than the already much contested 10,000 proposed by the previous government; the less than happy fate of Sarkozy’s minister of higher education, whose university reform bill has already been delayed by university heads and watered down by the unions (“I gave her a job beyond her capabilities,” the furious Sarkozy is said to have stormed); and the unenviable fate of the Prime Minister, François Fillon. On Tuesday he made his first major speech setting out the government’s plans, and for his pains has been called almost every insult you can think of. Only the Figaro praised what he proposed – most other papers said he is simply spouting what Sarkozy dictates, a ventriloquist’s dummy. Even Sarkozy’s aides publicly define government policy before the PM gets a chance, perhaps before Fillon has even heard what they are. This habit, according to Le Canard Enchainé puts him in a great rage. Indeed after reading yesterday’s edition, which quotes example after example of everyone’s disregard, not to say contempt for Fillon (including Sarko’s reported and pitiless remark: “It’s up to Fillon to find his own place. I’m not going to stop saying things.”), I am firmly convinced that if he has any self-respect the man must resign before the year is out.

In a nutshell: journalists are beginning to see that things are not going according to Sarkozy’s Five Year Plan. They do not (yet) dare openly to criticise their all-powerful president, so instead they snipe mercilessly at those around him – his wife and his Prime Minister. This will doubtless continue all through the silly season (unless more editors’ heads fall) until things take a more serious turn in September.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 5th, 2007 at 10:00 am and is filed under Political. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.