Bayrou’s rise continues
François Bayrou said that if he reached 18% of the vote by the end of February he would be happy; on Monday one of the many polling experts declared that if Bayrou ever reaches 20% he will become a major force. Well, it’s not quite the end of the month and Bayrou is at 19%. There is a feeling that, as with the No vote for the European referendum in 2005, there is a momentum gathering, a winning momentum which is going to be hard to stop. The difference of course is that whereas in the European referendum the reasons for voting Yes, though organised, were badly expressed, Bayrou has to beat the superbly organised Sarkozy machine, which is now going all out to stop him.
Jean-Marie Le Pen is also climbing, though more slowly. Two things to know about his figures: he tends to get a lower score in the opinion polls than he does in the election itself, since many of his voters do not like to say they’re going to vote Le Pen, and secondly, his supporters do not waver. 62% of those saying they are going to vote Bayrou admit their mind is not finally made up, whereas Le Pen’s base is firmer.
The loser at the moment is Ségolène Royal: Bayrou has risen 2 points, Le Pen 0.5: Royal has dropped 2.5. The figures are eloquent. Last week, before this latest poll, she re-organised her team, throwing out the young blood - the very interesting Arnaud de Montebourg and Christiane Taubira, born in French Guiana and one of the very few non-white French politicians, in favour of 13 elephants (average age 62) who had helped her party to defeat in 2002. Montebourg and Taubira were both part of the younger, internet-friendly team who helped her beat those same elephants in November’s primaries. Sarkozy has also risen 1 point. If Royal were to be against Sarkozy in the second round, this latest poll claims he would beat her by a widening margin of 52 - 48%.
On the extreme left, Olivier Besancenot has gained a point to 4%, Bové remains unmoved at 2%, the Communist Marie-George Buffet at 2.5%. Sadly the Green Dominique Voynet is sinking: she has lost 1.5% to her lowest score ever, 0.5%.
For French-readers it’s worth taking a hike over to Thierry Crouzet’s blog. Thierry is internationally considered one of the key figures in the active and powerful French web scene: his blog is always stimulating. I’ve never met him, but we seem to share at least three quirky beliefs: neither of us feel that Paris is the centre of France, or even the universe; both of us feel that open-source, participative internet is a vital and beautiful addition to the world; neither of us has a television. In yesterday’s blog, Thierry describes going to his neighbour’s house on Monday evening to watch François Bayrou being interviewed by le peuple on television, and his horror at seeing how a man he met and admired a few months ago has become subservient to the media he once decried. Indeed Bayrou once declared he would not appear on that very programme, and there he was, aping his rivals in a desire to please. One of the best things about Web 2.00 is that it allows (fosters?) independent thinking. Some people criticise it for pandering to the lowest common denominator in politics: rampant and visceral populism. But its great appeal is that it gives space for both.